Ship struck, PCE softer than expected: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Ship struck, PCE softer than expected: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

26 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Ship struck, PCE softer than

expected

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: A ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, while several freighters turned around when

Apostolos Apostolou

attempting a crossing; Brent rose to $75/bbl and WTI to $72/bbl (Bloomberg, June 25, 2026). As +1 212 526 5051

our economists outline, May PCE printed softer than expected, led by strong deflation in the apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

nonprofit institutions serving households category, while acceleration in core came from BCI, US

financial services. Real yields rallied: 2y -6.1bp, 5y -5.5bp, 10y -3.5bp, 30y -1.7bp (carry-

adjusted). Breakevens steepened on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y -4.3bp, 2y +0.0bp, 5y

+2.0bp, 10y +1.7bp, 30y +1.6bp. Forward breakevens advanced: 1y1y +3.5bp, 2y3y +3.6bp, 5y5y

+1.0bp, 10y20y +1.4bp. Apple increased MacBook and iPad prices by 20% amid memory chip

shortages. Today brings the final release of June UMich consumer sentiment.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: French consumer confidence advanced in June according to Insee,

with the balance of households expecting inflation to accelerate over the next year falling to

-15% (Bloomberg, June 25, 2026). Real yields steepened: 2y -3bp, 5y -3bp, 10y -1bp, 30y -1bp.

Breakevens rallied: 1y +0bp, 2y +3bp, 5y +3bp, 10y +2bp, 30y +1bp. HICPx also advanced: 1y

+2bp, 2y +2bp, 5y+3bp, 10y +1bp, 30y +1bp. In forward space, 1y1y was 2bp higher and 2y3y 3bp

higher. In data today, we will see ECB inflation expectations.