Mexico: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 6.50%; Forward Guidance Signals no Near-Term Policy Rate Move (Ramos)

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 6.50%; Forward Guidance Signals no Near-Term Policy Rate Move (Ramos)

Economics Research

25 June 2026 | 4:02PM EDT

Mexico: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 6.50%; Forward Guidance Signals no

Near-Term Policy Rate Move (Ramos)

Bottom Line: The MPC kept the policy rate at 6.50% (unanimous decision), in line with GS Alberto Ramos

+1(212)357-5768 |

and market consensus. The forward guidance signals no immediate policy rate move and alberto.ramos@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

that the current monetary stance is well-suited to face the challenges posed by the macro

environment, including those derived from the global macro backdrop. Core inflation

forecasts were revised marginally upwards (+10bp) for 2Q-4Q 2026 (unchanged

thereafter). The 4Q26 headline/core inflation forecasts are now at 3.5%/3.5%, with

convergence of headline inflation to the 3.0% target still expected by 2Q2027. In our

assessment, the 2026/27 inflation forecasts remain too optimistic. The balance of risks for

inflation was tweaked marginally with climate related shocks upgraded from upside risk #5

to #3. The balance of risks for inflation remains skewed to the upside and for growth to the

downside. The MPC expects growth to resume during Q2 but expects the economy to

operate with slack (idle capacity) over the forecasting horizon. Overall, the central bank

remains very focused on the weak growth backdrop, and has been persistently downplaying

high core inflation, while unconvincingly continuing to expect headline/core inflation to

converge to target by 2Q27. Given the central bank’s sharp focus on growth rather

than inflation, we are of the view that despite the on-hold guidance the MPC could

entertain additional rate cuts after the Summer if growth remains weak, the MXN