CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION: Jun-26: Persistent upstream pricing softness against worsening inventory expectations

Research evidence excerpt

CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION: Jun-26: Persistent upstream pricing softness against worsening inventory expectations

Equity Research

26 June 2026 | 7:02AM CST

CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION

Jun-26: Persistent upstream pricing softness against worsening

inventory expectations

Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and Mengwen Wang

+86(21)2401-8932 |

inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and spot prices/input costs implied cash GP mengwen.wang@goldmansachs.cn

Goldman Sachs (China) Securities

& EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Company Limited

Jacqueline Du

Key highlights in Jun MTD: +852-2978-1783 |

jacqueline.du@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

n Pricing softness persisted across upstream segments in Jun: Throughout the

month, pricing declined by an avg. 5% across the solar value chain. Specifically,

Film (-12% MTD) and Cell (-11% MTD) led the price weakness due to lower oil

price (-8% MoM) and lower silver cost (-13% MTD) amid surging producer-side

inventory during the period (+21% MoM), respectively. In terms of profitability,

lower pricing has led to 8pp/7pp/4pp/3pp deterioration in Cell/Film/Poly/Glass,

while margin slightly improved by 2pp MTD for Module due to easing cost

pressure. Looking forward, we think pricing softness will persist considering

i) worsening inventory outlook into the weak demand season in Jul-Aug, and

ii) lower Module production cost due to softening upstream prices and

adoption of cheap metal technology by Tier 1 players staring from 3Q.

n Global Module demand declined by 22% mom and 79% yoy to 29GW in May

2026, sending 5M26 down by 46% yoy to 193GW, which is tracking below our

FY26E forecast of -12% yoy, mainly due to weaker demand in China (-91% yoy in