CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA: Hot & Cold

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA: Hot & Cold

Update

June 26, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Hot & Cold Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc +27 11 587-0820

Georgi Deyanov

Stronger growth, lower inflation and a more dovish NBH in EconomistGeorgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7006

Hungary stand in contrast to softer growth, higher inflation and Yomna Moheieldin

a more hawkish SARB in South Africa. We see June inflation Economist

Yomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

easing in Poland and Turkey in the week ahead.

Recent Research Highlights

South Africa | Three key ideas South Africa enters 2H26 with softer growth, higher South Africa: 3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

inflation and a more hawkish SARB. Important for asset prices is determining Hungary: NBH Review: Bucking the Hawkish

whether this is a contained supply shock or the start of broader inflation, weaker Trend

earnings and renewed risk-premium pressure: Czech Republic: CNB Review: One Move, Open

Risks

• The growth profile looks more uneven and susceptible to downside risks in

Turkey: CBT Review: A Refined Balance

the near term, but beyond the next quarter or two we see tailwinds from an

South Africa: Where We Stand

improving supply side, lower inflation, monetary easing and faster credit

Saudi Arabia: Buffers Extend the Cycle

extension. Preventing us from turning structurally bullish on corporate

Poland: NBP Review: No Ripples

earnings, however, is a lack of capital deepening which caps the country's

South Africa: SARB: Not All Shocks Are The

potential growth rate at some 1.4%Y, on our estimates.

Same

• Inflation dispersion will be important in determining the outlook for asset