Midday Market Intelligence: rotation nation

Research evidence excerpt

Midday Market Intelligence: rotation nation

Equity Research

25 June 2026 | 1:55PM EDT

US stocks are flat on Thursday, during a volatile trading session (the S&P 500 has Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

changed direction no fewer than four times while writing this note) as investors try to chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

make sense of constructive economic data and another rotation in the AI trade.

Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

data and the AI trade Kshitij Garg

Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) increased 0.32% in May, in line with +1(212)934-7434Goldman Sachs India| kshitij.garg@gs.comSPL

expectations, while real GDP growth was revised up by 0.5pp to +2.1%

(quarter-over-quarter annualized) (see “USA: Core PCE in Line With Expectations;

Q1 GDP Revised Up to +2.1% on Lower Imports and Higher Inventories; Core Durable

Goods Orders Above Expectations; Lowering Q2 GDP Tracking Estimate to +2.4%”).

Personal income and personal spending both rose by more than expected in May,

suggesting Americans are looking through Iran War-driven pricing pressure. On the

labor front, initial jobless claims decreased in the week ended June 20, below

expectations.

Taken together, this morning’s data paints a picture of a relatively resilient US

economy. Consumers are still spending and the economy is still growing. Core PCE

inflation has reaccelerated this year, partly reflecting a combination of energy price

passthrough, AI-related price pressures amplified by measurement issues, and higher

equity prices. But, the potential resolution of the Iran War and the subsequent

decrease in oil prices, suggest we may be past the worst of the inflation scare,

although the dual impact of equity market outperformance and AI-related price