Asian FX trade idea

Research evidence excerpt

Asian FX trade idea

26 June 2026

Asian FX trade idea Currencies

Buy USD-THB EM Asia

◆ We open a trade idea to buy USD-THB 1m DF at 33.35 Joey Chew

Head of Asia FX Research

◆ We target 34.00 and place a stop-loss at 32.90 TheBankingHongkongCorporationand ShanghaiLimited,

Singapore Branch

joey.s.chew@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 5186

Rationale Jingyang Chen

We now see the USD on a stronger path. In Asia, we think USD-THB is one of the better expressions for Asian FX Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai

the following reasons: Banking Corporation Limited

jingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk

◆ USD-THB has historically shown a relatively high correlation and beta to the DXY compared to many +852 2996 6558

other USD-Asia pairs. Paul Mackel

Global Head of FX Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai

◆ Subdued gold prices in recent months is another channel through which a more hawkish Fed and a Banking Corporation Limited

strong USD affects the THB. paulmackel@hsbc.com

+852 2288 5523

◆ The THB is very low-yielding, and this does not look like it will change - the BoT usually has a dovish

slant that also applies to its exchange rate views (i.e. more relaxed towards currency depreciation,

especially if it is against a strong USD backdrop).

◆ Thailand’s customs trade deficit ballooned to a record large USD10bn in April and USD5.7b in May.

While oil imports should ease in the coming months, capital goods imports may not because of FDI

projects and high prices of capital equipment globally.

◆ There has not been much portfolio inflow from foreign investors in view of lacklustre growth and rising

fiscal risks.

◆ Residents will likely continue to invest abroad (albeit mostly on an FX-hedged basis) and accumulate

USD deposits.

◆ If oil prices rebound, the THB will likely come under intense pressure again.

Risks