LATAM Today: June 25, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

foreign agents) declined by US$20.8bn to US$26.2bn. The positive aggregate NIIP

figure, however, continues to mask large sectoral imbalances: the private sector

remains a large net international creditor, but the public sector is a large net

international debtor (-US$143.9bn in 1Q26).

SA

BRAZIL

Brazil 2Q26-MPR: Forget About the Inflation Target in 2026-27—Above-Target

Inflation Forecasts Through End-2028

Bottom Line: The quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) did not bring much new

information beyond that conveyed in the Copom minutes published on June 23. The baseline

scenario for inflation remains challenging, with the conditional forecasts above the 3.0% target

across the entire 6-quarter relevant horizon for monetary policy (1Q28 for the Aug and Sept

meetings), and with inflation remaining slightly above the target over the distant 4Q28. We

highlight that at the next Copom meeting the relevant horizon for monetary policy shifts to

1Q28 (for which the Copom forecast is at 3.2%), and for the Copom meetings during 4Q26 the

relevant horizon will be 2Q28 (for which the central bank forecast is 3.2%). These forecasts

suggest the need for, ceteris paribus, a Selic rate path on average above that expected by the

market in the Focus survey in order for inflation to converge to the target within the relevant

horizon; a stronger BRL and/or weaker activity would improve the inflation projection path. The

estimated neutral real rate (r*) remained at 5.0%. The forecast for 2026 real GDP growth was

upgraded by 40bp to 2.0%. In its projections the central bank considers a “strong” El Niño.

Under the Reference Scenario, the probability that inflation will exceed the 4.5% upper limit of