China Power Sector Industry Update: Frozen solar installations; above-normal heat may lift power demand

Research evidence excerpt

China Power Sector Industry Update: Frozen solar installations; above-normal heat may lift power demand

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Industry Date

China 25 June 2026

Hong Kong China Power Sector

Industry Update

Utilities

Frozen solar installations; above-normal

heat may lift power demand

Gary Zhou, CFA

Four-year low solar installations Research Analyst

On June 25, National Energy Administration data showed China added 8.7GW of +852-2203-5889

solar power capacity in May, down 9% MoM and 91% YoY, with the latter due to a

high base from the May 2025 installation rush. More importantly, stripping out the Key Changes

distortion from last year's unusually strong demand, 5M26 installations were still Company Target Price Rating

25% below 5M24 levels and 3% below 5M23, marking a four-year low. Meanwhile, 0836.HK 23.00 to 21.50 -

expectations for near-term support from tighter energy-efficiency standards across 600438.SS 13.00 to 10.00 -

the solar manufacturing value chain have yet to materialize. Industry fundamentals Source: Deutsche Bank

continue to weaken, with polysilicon prices falling to Rmb33/kg this week,

approaching our estimated trough of ~Rmb30/kg. With polysilicon output set to

rise in the near term, we expect the solar value chain to remain under pressure

through July-August, with any meaningful recovery likely dependent on seasonal

demand improvement in 4Q26 and/or tangible policy progress.

Figure 1: China monthly solar installations Figure 2: 5M China solar installations

100.0 92.9

2025 2026 250.0 Solar installations YoY 200%

80.0 200.0 139% 158% 197.9 150% 150%

100%

60.0 150.0

45.2 50%

29% 39.5 (GW) 40.2 (GW) 100.0 79.2 40.0 32.5 0% 61.2 59.6

22.0 20.2

50.0 23.7 -50% 20.0

8.9 9.5 8.7 14.4 11.0 7.4 9.7 12.6 -70%

0.0 -100%

0.0 5M22 5M23 5M24 5M25 5M26