Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet

Economics ● Global

25 June 2026

The Brent oil benchmark, which peaked around USD126/b on 30 April, has fallen below USD73/b as of writing. As our colleague, Kim

Fustier and team have noted, markets appear to be pricing in a relatively high probability of a full Hormuz flow normalisation, but

flows are likely to remain volatile and normalisation is likely to be uneven even if the broader de-escalation holds. The Oil and Gas

team have a working assumption of 3½ months to return to near-normal flows, with the base case of the oil market remaining in a

deficit until 4Q26 (see Hormuz tracker: Flows recover, constraints remain, 23 June 2026; US-Iran: A deal, still waiting for Hormuz

reopening, 15 June 2026).

Natural gas prices have also fallen on the latest Hormuz developments, with the TTF benchmark easing to its lowest level since the

trough of mid-April. However, as our colleague, Sadnan Ali and team have noted, with the damage to 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity,

the Oil and Gas no longer expect a supply glut for the rest of this decade (see Hormuz disruption: Europe’s refill needs underpin

upside risks, 21 May 2026). Other factors, such as Europe’s gas injection needs, Northern Hemisphere heatwaves, and LNG plant

outages, have been supporting natural gas prices.

Refined product prices have trended similarly to crude, albeit they remain a bit more elevated relative to pre-war levels and elevated

relative to the Brent benchmark. The Singapore jet fuel benchmark peaked at over USD230/b in late-March, but had trended lower

since, falling to USD111/b. The trend lower, even prior to the MoU signing partly reflects demand destruction, such as flight

cancellations and a drop in passenger demand.