Software Apocalypse?: Taking stock of AI threat for software

Research evidence excerpt

Software Apocalypse?: Taking stock of AI threat for software

25 June 2026

Software Apocalypse? EquitiesSoftware

Taking stock of AI threat for software United States

◆ We reviewed hard evidence of AI disrupting the software Abhishek Shukla*, CFA

sector and see no signs of material AI disruption Senior Analyst, Technology HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

abhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com

◆ Market is likely overestimating the productivity boost from AI +971 4 5093343

tools, which is leading it to overestimate AI risk to software Sameer Lam*

Global Software Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ We maintain Buy on major software names that have sold off sameer.lam@hsbc.com

on what we consider are unwarranted fears of AI disruption +44 20 7992 3780

Stephen Bersey

Head of US Technology Research

No signs of a software apocalypse yet: We maintain our view that AI is unlikely to HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

replace software as explained in: Can AI replace software? (9 Feb 2026) and stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 4153

Software is already eating AI (26 Feb 2026).

Software revenue growth remained strong in 1Q26 (median 12.7% y-o-y constant * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

currency). Current remaining performance obligations also posted strong double-digit

growth. Multiple software companies (e.g. SAP, Salesforce, and ServiceNow)

provided multiyear guidance and are generally guiding to continuation of strong

growth for several years. There are no signs of pricing pressure in the sector. Most

software companies reported increased non-GAAP operating margin in 1Q26 and are

guiding to further margin expansion.

Software companies are generally downplaying concerns about AI disrupting their