Exploring Key Upside Drivers Post-Investor Day

Research evidence excerpt

Exploring Key Upside Drivers Post-Investor Day

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Affirm 25 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States AFRM.OQ AFRM US Price target (USD) 85.00 Price at 23 Jun 26 71.83

52-week range 92.18 – 42.53

TMT

e-Finance Valuation & Risks

Exploring Key Upside Drivers Post-Investor

Day NateResearchSvensson,AnalystCFA

+1-917-547-4768

A lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have-yous

Hersh Shintre, CFA We believe that AFRM’s medium-term guidance issued at its recent investor day Research Associate

(see our recap here for more detail) will prove, once again, to be conservative (e.g., +1-917-459-1162

AFRM has grown GMV at a mid-30s rate since their last investor day where they

guided to low 20s+ growth). Based on our analysis of several key growth drivers Paul Tomaszewski

Research Associate discussed at the event, we see a clear path for AFRM to outperform its own

+917-419-2598

targets and unlock further upside to the shares. First, we continue to see the

Affirm Card as a substantial upside driver through our forecast period. We view

the company's forecast for a 10ppt+ contribution from D2C channels as a low bar

and we see a clear path for sustained growth driven by continued user adoption Key changes

and offering expansion. Next, as AFRM rolls out its Affirm Edge offering we see a Price target (USD) 80 85 6%

large opportunity for the company. Even with conservative assumptions around Source:DeutscheBank

existing partners (e.g., FIS, FISV), we see up to ~5ppt of upside to our current

FY29 GMV estimates and note this was not incorporated in AFRM’s medium-term

outlook. Further, we also expect AFRM’s ~1-5ppt contribution from international

expansion will prove to be conservative with our analysis pointing to ~3ppt