Pizza Still Leads as Wings Take Flight: Investor Day Recap

Research evidence excerpt

Pizza Still Leads as Wings Take Flight: Investor Day Recap

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Casey's General Stores 25 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States CASY.OQ CASY US Price target (USD) 1,000.00 Price at 24 Jun 26 801.35

52-week range 916.28 – 494.52

Consumer

Retailing / Food & Drug Chains Valuation & Risks

Pizza Still Leads as Wings Take Flight:

Investor Day Recap KrisztinaResearchKataiAnalyst

+1-212-250-0590

Following an exceptional end to FY26 and a strong strategic framework laid out

Jessica Taylor for the next three years, we came away from CASY’s Investor Day with high Research Associate

conviction in management’s ability to deliver—and potentially exceed—its 8–10% +1-212-250-3165

EBITDA CAGR target. The plan remains rooted in amplifying proven drivers

rather than introducing new execution risk, with a focus on expanding the inside Nick Breckenridge

Research Associate business, adding 400+ units, and driving incremental efficiencies through

+1-212-250-9179

technology and AI-enabled initiatives.

The key takeaway, in our view, is that a substantial portion of the EBITDA

algorithm remains firmly within management’s control. Core business

fundamentals are strong, with prepared foods (notably pizza and hot sandwiches)

and beverages driving transaction growth, mix improvement, and share gains,

while CASY’s relative value positioning versus QSR peers continues to widen.

Importantly, wings are not embedded as a meaningful contributor to the MSD

inside SSS target, suggesting potential upside of ~100–200 bps if the category

scales as expected through FY29.

Fuel margin remains an area of investor pushback. However, we view

management’s assumption of mid-40s cpg as reasonable, supported by evolving

industry dynamics.