Sunrun Inc. (RUN): Agreement signals opportunity to provide power for data centers and large loads but awaiting firm offtakes; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Sunrun Inc. (RUN): Agreement signals opportunity to provide power for data centers and large loads but awaiting firm offtakes; Buy

Goldman Sachs Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

secure local energy resources. In particular, RUN/TSLA/Renew already maintain

300+ MW of available capacity for immediate deployment in Virginia, which remains

a key data center market, with potential to grow to at least 500 MW by 2030.

Separately, the companies have committed to PJM’s proposed Reliability Backstop

Process, which could immediately unlock more than 1 GW of capacity if accepted.

We note that RUN/TSLA/Renew have yet to enter into any official offtakes.

n Capital cost savings. RUN has previously estimated that utilities spend over $130bn

per year in capital investments, and it believes that distributed resources could save

~$13bn per year. Separately, RUN highlighted recent analysis from The Brattle Group

that found utilizing the existing power grid more efficiently could reduce US

electricity bills by $110bn or ~60% to $170bn over the next decade as well as

accelerate data center interconnections by several years. Additionally, we highlight

that the DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) is working to support VPPs and recently

issued a report that estimates that tripling current VPP capacity to 80-160 GW by

2030 could address 10%-20% of peak load and save $10bn in annual grid costs.

n Existing VPP participation provides indication of potential economics. RUN is

already involved in at least 18 active home-to-grid distributed power plant

programs, with over 100,000 customers and ~425MW of power delivered in 2025.

Management believes that its estimate of $2,000+ of NPV per participating

customer is likely conservative. We believe participating in similar arrangements