US Midterm Elections Pulse Check: Puts & Takes from the Primaries

Research evidence excerpt

US Midterm Elections Pulse Check: Puts & Takes from the Primaries

Idea

June 25, 2026 09:27 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Public Policy | North America Ariana Salvatore

Equity Strategist

US Midterm Elections Pulse Ariana.Salvatore@morganstanley.com

Check: Puts & Takes from the

Primaries

With ~50% of states having completed their primary elections,

we take stock of the state of the race, revisit our expectations

for policy changes following the election, and outline key market

impacts. On net, our analyses of early data seem to suggest a

slight advantage for Democrats heading into November, but the

type of majority will be key for policy impacts.

• Primary election results: While we caution against extrapolating too much

to the general election, results thus far suggest a mixed bag on the

Democrat side of the ledger as both establishment and progressive

candidates have won races.

• Turnout dynamics: Early voting data shows an enthusiasm advantage for

Democrats, who are outpacing turnout vs. prior midterm elections. Cohort

dynamics also suggest dual headwinds for the GOP.

• The type of majority will matter for policy & market impacts: A 'fragile'

majority should produce more noise than signal, while a 'cohesive' majority

could result in a weakening or delay of SNAP/Medicaid cuts. A divided

government outcome wouldn't derail the policy variables that have

introduced elevated uncertainty over the past ~15 months, in our view. These

remain under the President's control.

• Macro impacts are largely similar across outcomes: We don’t see the

midterms producing a shift in policy direction that materially changes the

macro outlook: the policy vectors that have driven markets (tariffs,

geopolitics, de-regulation) are all likely to continue.