Aberdeen Group PLC (ABDN.L): Strong ii Flows In 2Q26 Illustrative Of Bull Thesis

Research evidence excerpt

Aberdeen Group PLC (ABDN.L): Strong ii Flows In 2Q26 Illustrative Of Bull Thesis

Aberdeen Group PLC (ABDN.L)

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Aberdeen Group PLC

Valuation

We value ABDN primarily on a DCF valuation approach but also factoring in a sum-of-the-parts price/earnings valuation

approach. Together, these two approaches result in a total fair value of £2.65, which we set as our target price.

For the DCF, we explicitly forecast net profit out to 2030E (distinguishing between abrdn core business and interactive investor)

and use these as a proxy for cashflow. We extend these out for a further 5 years, with growing gradually slowing to 4-8% pa,

whilst also applying a profit margin decline (c.2% pa) to reflect the increasing maturity of the business. We then assume growth

in cashflows into perpetuity at c.3.5% pa long-term growth rate, again at declining margins. We discount cashflows at a c13-

13.5% cost of equity and then add the value of listed stakes (assuming c10% haircut) and surplus capital.

For the SoTP, we add the value of ABDN’s stakes and surplus capital to a SoTP valuation for the core operation at c12-12.5x P/E

on 2Y forward earnings (based on c7.5x for Asset Management, c12x for Adviser, and c18x for interactive investor income –

adjusting for excess interest income), based on listed peers, as well as c8x for net financing income.

Risks

The main risks to the achievement of our investment case and target price include: 1) Risks to AUMA growth owing to weaker

market conditions and/or, investor sentiment. 2) Volatile growth in flows, due to macro concerns, performance issues, or more

attractive competing products. 3) Greater fee margin pressure than we anticipate, given ongoing competitive pressures or