Oil supply mounting: Inflation-Linked Daily

Research evidence excerpt

Oil supply mounting: Inflation-Linked Daily

FICC Research

Interest Rates

25 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Oil supply mounting

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

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US CPI: WTI fell to ~$70/bbl on Wednesday, as the Hormuz reopening has added supply to the

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

markets. While much of it may be directed toward refilling inventories or building new strategic BCI, US

reserves, the IEA last week predicted that supplies will outpace demand next year. New home

Apostolos Apostolousales declined 7.3% m/m in May; as our economists note, the weak print reflects stubbornly

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elevated mortgage rates. Real yields flattened: 2y +0.8bp, 5y -5.2bp, 10y -6.7bp, 30y -6.0bp

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

(carry-adjusted). Breakevens fell on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y -3.2bp, 2y -3.8bp, 5y -2.2bp, BCI, US

10y -2.2bp, 30y -2.5bp. Forward breakevens sold off: 1y1y -4.3bp, 2y3y -1.7bp, 5y5y -1.8bp,

10y20y -2.6bp. Data this week include core PCE inflation, the third release of Q1 26 GDP, and the

final release of June UMich consumer sentiment. Barclays' economics team forecasts 0.36%

m/m for core PCE.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: Real yields flattened: 2y +5bp, 5y +1bp, 10y -2bp, 30y -3bp on

Wednesday. Breakevens sold off: 1y fell 11bp, 2y -8bp, 5y -4bp, 10y -3bp, 30y -1bp. HICPx also

fell: 1y -16bp, 2y -6bp, 5y -6bp, 10y -3bp, 30y -2bp. In forward space, 1y1y was 4bp lower and

2y3y 3bp lower. Yesterday's issuance of BTP€i 39 for €1.75bn resulted in 1.56x bid-to-cover and

0.9bp overbidding. The ECB's Zigman noted that the retreat in oil prices will have "a positive

effect on inflation", while stressing that price stability remains the central bank's priority; Isabel