A global bond glut

Research evidence excerpt

A global bond glut

FICC Research

Macro Research

25 June 2026

Rates Strategy

A global bond glut SIGNATURE

A shift from a global savings glut to a bond glut points to

structurally higher long-term yields, reflecting persistent

fiscal deficits alongside a price-sensitive buyer base. Anshul Pradhan +1 212 412 3681

Incremental measures such as shortening issuance may slow anshul.pradhan@barclays.com

the adjustment, but are unlikely to prove sustainably BCI, US

effective. Rohan+44 (0) 20Khanna7773 0533

rohan.khanna1@barclays.com

• Long-end yields across developed markets have repriced to multi-decade highs, but the Barclays, UK

driver is not a return to past rate expectations: despite similar outright levels, current yields Moyeen Islam

reflect a much larger role for term premia, rather than the expected path of short rates, +44 (0) 20 7773 4675

pointing to a structural shift in how duration risk is priced (Figure 1). moyeen.islam@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

• Budget deficits remain elevated across major economies, but the causes differ across Shinichiro Kadota

regions: in the US through an erosion of convenience yield, in Europe due to vulnerability to +81 3 4530 1374

fiscal stress re-emerging under weaker macro conditions, in the UK because of heightened shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.com

sensitivity to fiscal narratives, and in Japan via fiscal expansion feeding into inflation risk BSJL, Japan

premia. Demi Hu, CFA

+1 212 526 7398

• A common thread across markets is that the buyer base has become more price demi.hu@barclays.com

sensitive: Reduced central bank and official sector support have weakened inelastic demand BCI, US

for duration, while a growing reliance on private investors and a diminished perception of

Andres Mok, CFA