Demand floor in place, rebound catalysts arrive later

Research evidence excerpt

Demand floor in place, rebound catalysts arrive later

IdeaM

The mass-market segment (~RMB150k) is expected to regain some traction in 2H,

supported by new offerings from BYD and Geely filling the gap left by ICE displacement.

These launches appear largely incremental rather than cannibalistic.

In contrast, competitive pressures in the premium/luxury segment are intensifying, as

reflected in BMW’s recent guidance cut. The challenges faced in China and APAC appear

structural rather than company-specific. The RMB300–400k segment increasingly looks

like the last line of defense, but remains under pressure. Industry feedback suggests that a

credible response from global OEMs now requires native EV platforms, advanced ADAS

capabilities, and residual value guarantees. We remain cautious, as brand erosion in this

segment is unlikely to be linear and could accelerate.

Policy remains supportive but is unlikely to be a major catalyst this year. The 2026

trade-in subsidy pool (~RMB125bn) is being deployed more gradually than last year, with

daily applications of 20–30k units (over 50% of monthly sales) and potential upside in

Aug–Sept. Recent policy measures targeting auto circulation and after-sales ecosystems

are constructive but should have limited near-term demand impact. Overall, policy

appears to be in stabilization rather than stimulus mode.

In terms of models that draw market attention, feedback varies, but frequently cited

models include BYD Great Tang (with ~40–50k locked orders post-launch), Sea Lion 08,

XPeng Mona L03, Li Auto L8 Livis, Geely Battleship 700, and Xiaomi Sky Nomad N90.

Finally, the HIMA ecosystem continues to expand, albeit with rising internal

competition. Huawei’s strategy of partnering with large state-owned OEMs to deploy