>15% ROTE in sight - valuation yet to move

Research evidence excerpt

>15% ROTE in sight - valuation yet to move

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BNP Paribas

>15% ROTE in sight - valuation yet to

move

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 128.00 EUR | Price: 101.44 EUR

Pan-European integrated champion at discount, €128 PO 24 June 2026

Build it, they’ll come. This best summarises BNPP’s strategy over the last decade. The Equity

end-product is now largely in place. BNPP has built a true pan-European integrated

universal bank, with a scalable model turning into a compounding machine, underpinning

Key Changes>15% ROTEs across rates and credit cycles. The pay-off phase is here. The market will

have to refocus on valuation, still at a distressed c.7x P/E. We raise our price objective to (EUR) Previous Current

€128 (from €110), implying >30% total shareholders return and reiterate our Buy rating. Price Obj. 110.00 128.00

2026E EPS 11.98 12.08

2027E EPS 13.26 13.55Aligning profitability with quality franchise: >15 ROTE

We estimate BNPP should sustainably break above 15% ROTE by 2030E. Levers are in 2028E EPS 14.45 15.75

motion across businesses representing 80% of allocated capital. CIB deliver returns well 2026E DPS 6.03 6.08

above CoE. CPBF, CPBB and PF turnaround is now confirmed. IPS strategy is in place,

with AXA IM integration delivering. Arval, BNL and Europe-Med remain under-optimised, Tarik El Mejjad >>

providing further upside. Likely crystallised at the 2027-30 CMD, we expect BNPP to ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

upgrade its 2028E ROTE to c.14% and introduce a >15% ROTE target by 2030, driven +44 20 7996 0014

tarik.el_mejjad@bofa.com

by (1) >5% revenues CAGR, (2) <52% C/I, <+1.5% costs CAGR and >+3ppt jaws, and (3)

<40bp CoR. We forecast >15% EPS CAGR in 2026-30E and see >10% cons upgrades. LeaResearchGeorgeAnalyst>>

MLI (UK)