Trend Tracker: Adding early Rx est; Q2E 30bps below Q1, and well below guide

Research evidence excerpt

Trend Tracker: Adding early Rx est; Q2E 30bps below Q1, and well below guide

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Managed Care

Trend Tracker: Adding early Rx est; Q2E

30bps below Q1, and well below guide

Industry Overview

We est cost trend +1.7% y/y in 2Q26, 30bps below 1Q26 24 June 2026

Based on the most recent data available (May and April), our BofA Composite PMPM Equity

Utilization Indicator for Q2E shows that cost trend accelerated to +1.7% vs -0.1% in our United States

last report as we incorporated most recent data. On a same data point basis, trend Managed Care

slowed in May M/M: Inpatient decelerated -510bps m/m on a SS basis, followed by Kevin Fischbeck, CFA

Physician (-480bps), and Outpatient (-20bps). Specialty Rx spend accelerated 40bps Research Analyst

m/m, followed by Traditional Rx (260bps). MCO guidance assumes stable trend growth in BofAS+1 646 855 5948

2026 vs 2025, so at +1.7%, we are still well below the implied +4.8% average guide. kevin.fischbeck@bofa.com

Joanna Gajuk

Adding preliminary spend estimate from weekly Rx scripts ResearchBofAS Analyst

We are introducing a change to our methodology. Going forward, we use weekly +1 646 855 3961

joanna.gajuk@bofa.com

Specialty and Traditional script data from IQVIA to estimate monthly y/y Rx spend by

Craig Jones

multiplying weekly scripts by the spend per script reported in the prior month. This Research Analyst

approach yielded a 75% correlation vs reported monthly spend over the past 11 months BofAS

+1 646 743 2020

(the only period we had data for), providing an indicator of monthly spend approx. 2 craig.jones3@bofa.com

weeks ahead of the official release, enabling a more complete quarterly trend. Each Joaquin Arriagada Martinez

month, we will restate the prior month using the official reported data once available.