Lottomatica Pay to play Credit Analysis

Research evidence excerpt

Lottomatica Pay to play Credit Analysis

Accessible version

Lottomatica

Pay to play

Credit Analysis

Valuation already reflects strong fundamental picture 24 June 2026

We refresh our views of Lottomatica post its May-26 refinancing. We add coverage of High Yield Credit

the €31s and €32s secureds at Marketweight. Both bonds trade near the mid-point of Italy

the Euro BB and BBB indices (YTW basis). We see these levels as appropriate and expect Gaming

trading levels to remain range-bound. We regard Lottomatica as a steady compounder Stephanie Vincent, CFA

with disciplined capital allocation and supported by a clearer regulatory backdrop for Research Analyst

gaming in Italy, mid-term. We expect credit ratings to reach Ba1/BB+ levels over the MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1143

next 12-18 months, despite the shift to potentially more buybacks and/or bolt-on M&A. stephanie.a.vincent@bofa.com

We do not add coverage of the €30s, as they are trading to call. Conor Forde

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 1054No near-term maturities, decent liquidity

conor.forde@bofa.com

We think Lottomatica has a long runway to deliver its strategy, as confirmed by the

positive outlook at S&P. In addition, new online gaming retail concessions are confirmed

(9 yrs.), and the company has no maturities until 2030. The runway is underpinned by LTMCIM: Lottomatica Group Spa

decent liquidity, consisting of a c. €450mn fully-undrawn Oct-30 RCF and c. €120mn of

cash. ADM: Agenzia delle Dogane e dei

Monopoli

Balance sheet under control, expect more bolt-on M&A

In our view, Lottomatica’s balance sheet is under control with reported net leverage at

2.3x, and its cost of debt at 4.9% (down c. 40bps YoY). We expect the company to

continue to be a consolidator in the Italian gaming market, through bolt-on M&A.