US Waste: A primer on the Recycling segment

Research evidence excerpt

US Waste: A primer on the Recycling segment

25 June 2026

US Business Services

This note is part of a series expanding on the economics of the Waste Industry, following Connor Cerniglia, CFA

+1 917 344 8472 previous primers covering the Solid Waste Collection and Landfill segments.

connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com

The US recycling rate climbed from just ~5% in 1960 to ~25% in 2017, before

Bridget Alkin plateauing over the last decade, suggesting recent recycling volumes have grown in line

+1 917 344 8359 with the ~1% total waste growth. For comparison, the US recycling and composting rate is bridget.alkin@bernsteinsg.com

35%, below the 43-49% EU average, but is broadly in line with France and Ireland at ~41%.

After decades of improving recycling rates, we expect continued gains will be more difficult

to achieve, with Recycling volume growth modestly above total US waste growth.

Recycling economics are lower-margin and highly variable versus other waste

verticals. Revenue is split roughly 1/3rd tipping fees and 2/3rds recycled commodity

sales, making margins highly sensitive to commodity price changes. EBITDA margins

are the lowest within the waste value chain, often 15-20%, and account for 8% of

industry sales and 4% of EBITDA. While barriers to entry exist—driven by permitting and

high capital intensity—and are second only to landfills, the profitability gap between the

segments is wide. Volume throughput is about 1/10th that of a landfill, per-ton sorting and

handling costs are higher, and pricing is set by commodity prices rather than the capacity

scarcity and CPI+ escalators that benefit landfill economics.

For the largest three Waste companies, a 10% change in the recycled commodities

basket drives a 25-75bps impact to total company EBITDA. Old Corrugated Cardboard