Consumer & Retail Power of progress

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer & Retail Power of progress

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Consumer & Retail

Power of progress

Industry Overview

Oil relief, Beef pressure, sharper Grocery investment 22 June 2026

Last week, risk assets were affixed to U.S.-Iran peace talks and despite weekend High Grade Credit

volatility in negotiations, this proceeded into Monday’s open with Brent oil dropping to United States

<$78/bbl. Also in focus last week was a more hawkish tone from new Fed Chairman Retailing & Consumer

Warsh which weighed on Treasuries and pushed the BofA Econ team to raise their ‘26

Brian Callen, CFA

outlook for hikes to +75bps beginning in September. This is driven by supply-relayed Research Analyst

inflation and a robust labor market. In U.S. economic data, retail sales in May stayed BofAS +1 646 855 8987

strong (+0.9% m/m vs +0.5% est.) led by auto parts, building products, gas, and e-com. brian.callen@bofa.com

The ICE BofA IG Index held flat (+0.16% TR) w/w as the market digested $52bn of Avantika Pedamallu

supply and more AI-linked funding. Both Cyclicals (+1bp) and Non-Cyclicals (flat) ResearchBofAS Analyst

slightly outperformed, returning to +0.19% and +0.22%, respectively. +1 646 855 7557

avantika.pedamallu@bofa.com

In Food (flat), we attended JBS N.V.’s Investor Day where management emphasized

diversification as a driver of efficiency and value-added growth to offset U.S. beef

pressure. JBS sees 1H26 near trough levels, though the recovery in beef remains Exhibit 1: Markets w/e 06/18/26

prolonged, even with screwworm not expected to be a significant headwind. Additionally, Last week's market performance

JBS reduced capex guidance by $400mn, which should support 2H free cash flow and Market Value WoW

working capital, helping bring net leverage down toward ~3.1x in FY26.