What‘s Driving the Stock & Investor Debates

Research evidence excerpt

What‘s Driving the Stock & Investor Debates

Idea

June 25, 2026 04:18 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMRocket Cos Inc | North America Jeffrey Adelson, CFA

Equity Analyst

What's Driving the Stock & Jeff.Adelson@morganstanley.comBen Bayanfar +1 212 761-1761

Research Associate

Ben.Bayanfar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0649

Investor Debates Joseph Leeman

Joseph.Leeman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4381

Investors appear to be looking past peak mortgage rates, but the

earnings outlook in our view still hinges on mortgage rates Rocket Cos Inc (RKT.N, RKT UN)

moving to 6% or lower. While the outlook looks incrementally Consumer Finance | United States of America

Stock Rating Equal-weight

more constructive vs a month ago, consensus estimates are at Industry View In-Line

Price target $18.00

risk if rates stay near current levels. Shr price, close (Jun 24, 2026) $14.73

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $41,711

52-Week Range $24.35-12.18

Key Takeaways

RKT jumped 9% yesterday amid lower rates (10Y down ~10bp to 4.4%), lower oil

prices. New housing proposal helps, but not a needle-mover for mortgage

originators

Investors may be starting to look past peak mortgage rates, discount a less

challenging environment for origination volumes if rates moderate

Macro backdrop improving at margin. Still, mortgage demand soft w/ application

growth slowing to single digits from 50% y/y, refi apps now half of Feb levels

Outlook incrementally more constructive vs. month ago, but near-term setup

remains challenging; if mortgage rates remain here, consensus may need to move

lower

What would make us more positive? Lower inflation, clearer path to <6% mtg

rate. At today's 6.4%, 10-15% of mortgages are ITM vs 25% when rates briefly hit

5.9%

Market starting to look past peak rates for mortgage originators? Shares of RKT