Oil Tracker: Gulf Flows Recover: Market Fast-Forwards to Future Surplus

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Tracker: Gulf Flows Recover: Market Fast-Forwards to Future Surplus

Commodities Research

24 June 2026 | 10:04PM EDT

n Spot Brent futures prices decreased by 8% over the last week following reported Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

+1(646)446-3905 |

“major progress” regarding US-Iran negotiations, a sizable pick-up in visible yulia.grigsby@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Persian Gulf oil flows, a US waiver authorizing Iranian oil sales, and a continuing

Alexandra Paulus

decline in crude positioning. +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com

n The market is likely extrapolating the swift (thus far) recovery of Mideast supply

Filippo Cuscito

and already pricing expected future surpluses. +44(20)7051-9073 |

filippo.cuscito@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International o Total Gulf exports have returned to 63% of normal levels (7-day moving

Daan Struyven average) (Exhibit 1) following a rapid recovery of visible Hormuz flows +1(212)357-4172 |

(Exhibit 6), likely reflecting more crossings and a larger share of crossings daan.struyven@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

that are “visible” (ships that are now keeping their AIS on).

o Empty tanker capacity continued to rise in the Persian Gulf, with 52mb

more empty tankers entering the Gulf over the last week vs. 53mb of

loadings leaving the Gulf (Exhibit 7).

§ While we don’t expect shipping availability to be a major binding

constraint, Iraq has reportedly halted production at the West Qurna

2 oil field on a shortage of empty tankers.

o There have been no reported attacks on ships in/around Hormuz since

June 11.

n The US Treasury issued a 60-day waiver authorizing sales of Iranian oil, including

oil transported on previously sanctioned vessels.

o The waiver may unlock up to around 60mb of Iranian oil on water (Exhibit

2).