Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE): F126 programme cancellation - FAQs and market feedback

Research evidence excerpt

Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE): F126 programme cancellation - FAQs and market feedback

Goldman Sachs Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE)

visibility than about budget risk.

5. Does this negatively impact near-term earnings?

We don’t think so. The first F126 delivery was not expected until the early 2030s, so any

EBIT contribution would likely have been back-end loaded. We would therefore frame

today’s news primarily as an order intake confidence issue rather than a material change

to near-term earnings expectations.

6. What about the remaining naval opportunity?

Rheinmetall had previously referred to a broader German naval opportunity of ~€80bn

over the next decade. We don’t believe that opportunity disappears and Germany has

not stated any change to its plans to invest materially in naval capability. However, the

F126 decision reduces the visible near-term opportunity for Rheinmetall and may lead

investors to apply a lower probability to the company winning future naval awards.

7. Why is the stock down so much if the near-term earnings impact is limited?

The market reaction reflects an existing investor concern: whether Rheinmetall can

continue to integrate and execute across an increasingly broad defence portfolio,

including naval. Today’s issue therefore appears to be less about immediate EBIT and

more about confidence in landing orders and executing on them.

8. What would help rebuild confidence?

We think three things matter from here. First, clear communication from management

around the specific F126 implications and any thoughts on the naval strategy from here.

Second, tangible evidence that other large German orders continue to move through the

pipeline, with Arminius (Boxer) most important in this respect. Third, continued delivery