Global Copper: Key Debates for GS 2026 Copper Week

Research evidence excerpt

Global Copper: Key Debates for GS 2026 Copper Week

Goldman Sachs Global Copper

resolution for Cobre Panama would allow the market to look forward and slowly price in

growth optionally (e.g., the pending Taca Taca project in northwestern Argentina). We

also see FQM shares implying a copper price of $11,300/t including Cobre Panama,

which is 17% below spot (more details here).

Freeport-McMoRan

FCX offers best-in-class exposure to structural deficits in the copper market with

supplemental gold exposure, in our view. We believe FCX’s diverse geographic footprint

provides the company with tailwinds ranging from low cost production to a hedge

against US copper tariffs. We believe FCX is set to reaccelerate free cash flow as the

company re-ramps its Grasberg mine, which is the lowest cost mine in the world per GSe

(link), given its significant gold exposure. Currently Grasberg is targeted to be exiting

FY2026 at a 60%-65% run-rate, then getting up to ~100% exiting FY2027. Additionally,

in North America, FCX continues to progress on a leaching initiative which is set to both

increase production volumes and meaningfully reduce cost/lb through 2030 as mix

shifts. As a result of the incremental operating leverage plus elevated copper prices, we

estimate FCX’s gross profit/lb can increase from $1.31 in 2025 to $2.90 in 2027, an

increase of 121%. As a result, our view is that we sit at an inflection point where the

combined impact of Grasberg’s ramp, leaching initiatives, and higher copper prices can

result in EBITDA margin expansion from 34% in 2025 to 54% by 2028, with free cash

flow accelerating significantly. Looking beyond the next 3 years, FCX has significant

growth opportunities across each region. Across Baghdad, Safford/Lonestar, Kucing Liar,