Swedbank (SWEDA.ST): Key Takeaways from CFO Investor Meeting

Research evidence excerpt

Swedbank (SWEDA.ST): Key Takeaways from CFO Investor Meeting

Goldman Sachs Swedbank (SWEDa.ST)

n On costs, Swedbank will book SEK 1.3bn of one-off costs in 2026, of which SEK

0.8bn in Q2 and SEK 0.5bn in the second half of the year. Cost synergies are

estimated at SEK 1bn per year as run-rate by end 2028, partially arising from lower

headcount (Swedbank estimates 550 departures by 2027). Annual salary inflation in

Sweden stands at c.2-3%. Legacy systems are still an issue that needs to be

addressed. Upgrading legacy systems has historically been costly, although AI could

help in reducing the cost of transitioning to modern platforms.

n On Swedish banking taxes, visibility remains limited. While the current framework is

unchanged for now, there is some political discussion, with at least three opposition

parties advocating for a banking tax.

n On distributions and capital, Swedbank maintains a preference for dividends over

buybacks; nonetheless, management does not rule out buybacks as an option.

Swedbank targets a 200bps capital buffer; the decision to go down to this level lies

with the board and is partially a factor of future developments around the AML

investigation and the impact of Baltic IRB models. There is no update on the final

part of the AML investigation. The messaging around the impact of IRB models

remains unchanged.

Valuation and Key Risks

Our 12-month price target is SEK 340. We value SWED using a P/E valuation

methodology applied 75%/25% to our 2027/28 EPS estimates using an 11.0x target

multiple. We are Sell-rated. Key upside risks to our view and price target include

better-than-expected macroeconomic development in core markets,

higher-than-expected interest rates, better-than-expected development in deposit