Trade & Capital Flows: In recovery: Trade data and policy tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Trade & Capital Flows: In recovery: Trade data and policy tracker

25 June 2026

In recovery EconomicsGlobal

Trade data and policy tracker

◆ Vessel traffic recovery via the Strait of Hormuz will be gradual…

◆ …while AI investment is driving the surge in Asian trade

◆ New US tariffs due in July; effective rates to remain roughly the

same based on proposals, but more duties could be announced

A US-Iran peace deal has been struck and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but the road

to recovery will be bumpy. Vessel traffic through the strait has picked up since the deal

was signed, with 29 vessels moving through the waterway on 22 June 2026 (mostly

outbound) according to shipping data (chart 12). Our oil analysts estimate that more than Shanella Rajanayagam

Trade Economist

4mbd of crude oil has crossed the Strait over 17-21 June, about one-fifth of pre-conflict HSBC Bank plc

levels (Oil markets, 23 June 2026). shanella.l.rajanayagam@hsbc.com

+44 20 3268 4118

If the strait does indeed stay open, it could take three months or more for flows to go back Prachi Mathur

to a more ‘normal’ pattern. Much will depend on how quickly mines are cleared, vessels Associate Bangalore

reposition and deal with congestion, and insurance costs become more manageable. But

until a more permanent peace agreement is reached, transit remains precarious. In fact,

Iran declared the strait closed again days after the interim deal was signed, and its

Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced vessels need a permit to transit and that it

reserves the right to introduce insurance fees in the future.

89% of chief economists surveyed by the WEF in May 2026 expect growth to weaken

over the next 12 months (chart 4), while our global economists expect world GDP to grow