STAT Reserve Analysis: Supportive of GS Insurance Cycle Outlook; Buy AIG & HIG

Research evidence excerpt

STAT Reserve Analysis: Supportive of GS Insurance Cycle Outlook; Buy AIG & HIG

Equity Research

24 June 2026 | 5:00AM EDT

AMERICAS INSURANCE: PROPERTY & CASUALTY

STAT Reserve Analysis: Supportive of GS Insurance Cycle Outlook; Buy

AIG & HIG

In this report, we analyze statutory reserving trends by product to supplement our Robert Cox

+1(212)902-9813 | rob.cox@gs.com

GAAP reserve analysis and gain insights into company performance and the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

trajectory of the P&C insurance cycle. For our commercial lines coverage group, we Jack Kendall

estimate a similarly strong U.S. Medium/Long tail reserve redundancy as we +1(212)902-0331Goldman Sachs & Co.| jack.kendall@gs.comLLC

estimated last year, equal to an average of ~5% of STAT surplus. Including Victoria Gong

international/short-tail portfolios we estimate most companies are 5-10%+ net +1(212)902-7254victoria.gong@gs.com|

redundant as a % of GAAP book value. From an Industry/product perspective, 1) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

social inflation pressured accident years for other liability has shifted to

AY2021-AY2023, with the most recent years signaling as potentially better reserved,

2) workers’ comp reserves remain highly redundant, 3) Other Liability (Claims Made)

reserves are flashing some warning signs, while 4) CMP reserve strength has been

building, potentially leading to lighter non-cat property/package pricing trends

moving forward. We think liability trends are supportive of continued pricing

increases at similar levels in the near term. From a company perspective, TRV

(Neutral) reserves remains a stand-out as improving YoY and is pushing towards the

top of the group from a reserve position perspective, alongside Buy rated peers

HIG/AIG. Our estimated reserve position for CB/HIG/WRB saw modest