US equities drop amid AI capex concerns; DB: US10yr yields at 4.8% by year-end: Receive GBP vs USD10y; Policy rules point to further ECB hikes; Bitcoin update; Australia CPI today

Research evidence excerpt

US equities drop amid AI capex concerns; DB: US10yr yields at 4.8% by year-end: Receive GBP vs USD10y; Policy rules point to further ECB hikes; Bitcoin update; Australia CPI today

23 June 2026

DBDaily

broadly in line with 25bp of additional tightening market pricing added since

March. DB’s base case remains for one more ECB hike to 2.5%.

Bitcoin update. Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$63,000, down ~50% from its

~$128,000 peak in October 2025. Marion Laboure thinks the sell-off reflects a

combination of: (i) a hawkish shift in the Fed outlook; (ii) record institutional ETF

outflows and thinning liquidity; (iii) a sentiment shock from Strategy’s first Bitcoin

sale since 2022; and (iv) a more structural force now visible: the rotation of risk

capital into AI. In this update, Marion disentangles the short-term trigger from

medium-term drivers, assesses the AI dynamic, and revisits the CLARITY Act —

now closer to passage than ever, but on a tight timeline.

German pension reforms to deliver a boost to capital markets. Marion

Muehlberger highlights a surprising, and game-changing, element of recently

released pension reform proposals for Germany – the introduction of a mandatory

funded component, with 2 pp of gross salaries to be additionally invested in a

centralized public pension fund. This will eventually add up to €35bn in additional

investments into capital markets with no pre-defined asset allocation or country

split, potentially boosting German capital markets.

The day ahead

Australia CPI, May. DB’s preview here.

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks. 4:30pm Sydney time. From the RBA

website: The lecture focuses on theoretical issues for an academic audience and

will not include discussion of live monetary policy issues; as such there is no

livestream or Q&A.