Consolidating Last Month‘s Core Uptick: Euro Inflation Preview | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Consolidating Last Month‘s Core Uptick: Euro Inflation Preview | Europe

Idea

June 24, 2026 05:17 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.MEuro Inflation Preview | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Consolidating Last Month's Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Core Uptick Claire A Thuerwaechter

Economist

Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

EA June HICP will be released on July 1st. We forecast headline

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

inflation down to 3.0%Y in June from 3.2%Y in May. We expect Chiara Zangarelli

core HICP inflation stable at 2.6%Y, consolidating the May EconomistChiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

uptick. We continue to see any pass-through of energy to other

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

items (food, goods, services) coming only later. Gabriela Silova

Energy drives headline inflation down: We forecast EA headline HICP inflation at Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

3.0%Y in June from 3.2%Y in May. This would mostly reflect lower energy inflation Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

(8.6%Y from 10.8%Y) on the back of the recent drop in oil prices. On our Skander Garchi Casal

projections, headline might be already past its peak. We also expect food inflation to Economist

Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

ease (1.8%Y from 1.9%Y): upward pressures on food inflation from higher energy

costs have not arrived yet, and we rather see a continuation of the disinflationary

Exhibit 1 : We see headline HICP at 3.0%Y

trend observed in recent months for several products, such as meat or coffee.

and core at 2.6%Y in June