EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Navigating challenges

Research evidence excerpt

EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Navigating challenges

FICC Research

Credit & Macro Research

24 June 2026

EM Economic & Strategy Outlook

Navigating challenges

Geopolitics and energy prices have dominated markets in Q2,

but EM economies and assets have remained remarkably

resilient. The Fed cycle may create new challenges for EM Economics

local, but the easing of Middle East tensions should also Christian+44 (0) 20 7773Keller2031

christian.keller@barclays.comcreate scope for performance and focus on country-specific

alpha. Barclays, UK

Gabriel Casillas

+ 1 212 526 7814

gabriel.casillas@barclays.com

BCI, US Local: The Fed is stepping in as the driver for EM local, with oil stepping back. EM inflation

risks move to the background amid lower oil prices and soft food inflation, which takes FX & EM Macro Strategy

pressure off central banks. The US growth and Fed cycle should be more relevant in the next Andrea Kiguel

quarter, and EM rate spreads may need to widen versus the US as the USD premium narrows +1 212 526 8954

a bit. We think real rates will hover around neutral for the most part, with some hike premium andrea.kiguel@barclays.com

needed, especially in AI-sensitive countries. We think spreads to the US look low in Mexico, BCI, US

Chile and Poland; spreads should steepen in Mexico and Chile, while we see the Polish curve

Credit Strategy

steepening. We are more cautious on carry FX.

Andreas Kolbe

+44 (0) 20 3134 3134

Credit1 : EM HY sovereigns on a longer-term positive fundamental trajectory – especially andreas.kolbe@barclays.com

those with favourable supply-redemption dynamics – should continue to perform. We Barclays, UK

upgrade SOAF, ARGENT and EGYPT to OW, following a similar recent upgrade for PKSTAN (sell

5y CDS) and maintain OWs in GHANA, SRILAN.