Aker BP (AKRBP.OL): Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Aker BP (AKRBP.OL): Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch

s will adjust relatively quickly on exchange rate movements given the global nature of the oil

industry, which is based primarily in USD. There is a 1:1 translation effect on moves in NOK/US$ into local currency EPS and

DPS.<br><br>3) Political – Changing political forces could impact on Aker's legal ownership, fiscal take, and pace of

development activity in any country in which it operates. However, with its assets located in Norway, a stable fiscal and

political environment, we believe the political risks inherent in Aker BP's portfolio are lower than at peers.<br><br>4)

Integration Risk – Aker BP has grown rapidly through acquisitions and therefore the successful integration of these businesses

and assets remains key to ensure the delivery of growth targets and reduce costs.<br><br>5) Industry Consolidation – With

access to resources more challenging, we believe M&A will continue to be a potential risk to the mid-cap E&Ps with

large resource positions. With respect to Aker BP, the current shareholding structure sees Aker ASA holding a 21% stake and BP

holding a 16% stake, which lowers the risk of a hostile approach for the company, in our view.<br><br>6) Natural and

Man-Made Disasters – Aker BP’s operating activities could be severely disrupted by the effects of natural disasters or industrial

accidents. Accidents may bring the burden of additional costs from remediation, fines, and restrictions on future business

activities.<br><br>If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock

will likely have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we