Truck Stop/TLSS: Half-Time Break

Research evidence excerpt

Truck Stop/TLSS: Half-Time Break

Update

June 24, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLSS: Half-Time Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Break Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

As we approach mid-year, current and forward indices were

Freight Transportation

mixed though 2026 TL rate expectations increased further to North America

+7.1%. Commentary is again overwhelmingly "green", with focus Industry View Attractive

on tightening capacity and a transition in shipper preference Select quotes from our survey…

from asset-light to asset-based due to increasing rates. • "The convergence of compliance enforcement,

court rulings and project based premium freight

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of May and vs. our in the flatbed market are making specific regions

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged even tighter than peak season expectations.

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.11 in 6 Shippers who plan ahead and have strong

months (currently $2.36) and move to $2.26 in 12 months. Please find the full relationships with carriers will be better

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model positioned to navigate the carrier market

TLQURE , and here for more information on the QURE model. favorably." (Shipper)

Sentiment skews negative though 2026 rate expectations reach highest levels • “Shippers that shifted from assets to brokerage to

since July 2018.