Abundant catalysts to buoy the medium-term earnings outlook, we remain bullish on sector stocks

Research evidence excerpt

Abundant catalysts to buoy the medium-term earnings outlook, we remain bullish on sector stocks

Equity Research

23 June 2026 | 10:27PM JST

JAPAN SHIPBUILDING

Abundant catalysts to buoy the medium-term earnings outlook, we

remain bullish on sector stocks

We summarize our overall view on Japan’s shipbuilding industry, upcoming catalysts Norihiro Miyazaki

+81(3)4587-9842 |

to watch, business trends at select non-covered (NC) companies, and the norihiro.miyazaki@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

implications for our coverage companies Namura Shipbuilding, Mitsui E&S, and

Ryohei KuritaTokyo Keiki. Key points are as follows. +81(3)4587-1799 |

ryohei.kurita@gs.com

n Current conditions in Japan’s shipbuilding industry: The order backlog as of

end-May 2026 disclosed by the Japan Ship Exporters’ Association was 29.27 mn

GT, meaning the industry has already secured vessel demand scheduled for

delivery over the next three and a half years. The backlog remains at a historically

high level. Cumulative order volume for Jan-May 2026 was 3.6 mn GT (-2% yoy).

We focus on the following two industry trends as potential catalysts.

o (1) Potential for order backlog expansion via capacity enhancements:

In late February 2026, the Maritime Bureau of the Ministry of Land,

Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) announced revisions to its

shipbuilding-related policy initiatives. The Bureau is starting a framework

for capacity enhancement, and said operators must have plans to expand

capacity by 50% or more from 2024 levels to be eligible for support from

the Shipbuilding Industry Revitalization Fund (¥350 bn over 10 years).

Japan’s Cabinet is scheduled to approve a growth strategy targeting 17

strategic sectors, including shipbuilding, in around summer 2026, after