The a2 Milk Co. (ATM.NZ): Transitioning to a more robust business; supply chain disruption and US recall risk create buying opportunity. Initiate at Buy.

Research evidence excerpt

The a2 Milk Co. (ATM.NZ): Transitioning to a more robust business; supply chain disruption and US recall risk create buying opportunity. Initiate at Buy.

Goldman Sachs The a2 Milk Co. (ATM.NZ)

downside risk. On the supply chain issues: we expect a modest impact to FY27 China

label sales, partially offset by restocking (noting part of the reason for availability issues

was higher demand), with medium term risks mitigated by a re-targeting of marketing,

and A2 is transitioning its supply chain away from Synlait which should mitigate future

supply chain disruption risks (in English label). Higher airfreight costs are likely to remain

in FY27 as A2 restocks the channel, before normalising in FY28E. We note the latest

Nielsen MBS data to Mar/April does not suggest a significant China label sales impact

(noting only April would have been impacted)

We are modestly (-2%/-4%) below vs. Visible Alpha consensus EPS expectations

across 2H26/FY27E as we factor in a more conservative FY27 year driven by a modest

sales impact from the US recall in China English label IMF and 1) ongoing freight costs;

and 2) greater marketing investment (following supply constraints in 4Q26, US recall

impact and product launches set for FY27).

Looking beyond near term earnings risks, a2 is in the process of transitioning into a

more robust FMCG business on the back of significant marketing / supply chain and

product development investments. A2 now has greater earnings growth potential in

our view driven by 1) an expanding product range; and 2) its Pokeno acquisition

enabling greater control over supply chain; new product ranges and vertical margin

capture. We expect China label sales growth of 4% CAGR across FY25-FY30E driven by 2