Euro Area Data Update: Some Improvement in Area-Wide PMIs

Research evidence excerpt

Euro Area Data Update: Some Improvement in Area-Wide PMIs

Economics Research

23 June 2026 | 12:39PM BST

BOTTOM LINE: Our area-wide preliminary Q2 GDP was broadly unchanged. Giovanni Pierdomenico

+44(20)7051-6807 |

giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com

MAIN POINTS: Goldman Sachs International

More details on today’s flash PMIs here.

1. In Germany, the June PMI surprised to the downside, with the composite declining

by 0.8pt to 48.0. The weakening was driven by the services sector, while

manufacturing was more resilient. The flash estimate of manufacturing sales pointed

to firm growth in May at +2.7%mom. This would confirm the signal of generally

resilient manufacturing in Q2, although revisions to the flash estimate have been

quite large recently.

2. In France, the composite PMI rebounded in June from very weak levels, with a

likely positive impulse from calendar effects, although it remains soft at 47.6. While

broad-based across the two sectors, the sequential uptick was most notable in the

services sector, where the activity index rose by 3.1pt to 47.4. The INSEE business

climate indicator was essentially unchanged in June and remains around -0.8

standard deviations (sd) below its long-run mean (vs. -0.4sd below in February).

Across sectors, an uptick in services and retail sentiment was broadly offset by the

moderation in manufacturing and construction. Reported price plans moderated

sequentially but remain elevated in the manufacturing and retail sector.

3. In Spain, the goods trade deficit narrowed slightly in April. The number of hotel

overnight stays rose in May and currently stands at around 3.7% over a year ago,

supported by non-resident arrivals.

4. Turning to area-wide indicators, the composite PMI came in slightly above

expectations in June at 49.5 (vs. 48.5 in May).