Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Weather Tracker Q2: Chilly Weather for Thirsty Football Fans

Research evidence excerpt

Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Weather Tracker Q2: Chilly Weather for Thirsty Football Fans

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23 Jun 2026 21:04:02 ET │ 13 pages

Ambev (ABEV3.SA)

Weather Tracker Q2: Chilly Weather for Thirsty Football Fans

CITI’S TAKE

2Q26 weather conditions have been slightly softer than both 2025 and

Neutral historical averages, falling short of expectations for a more supportive

Price (23 Jun 26 18:00) R$16.37 backdrop after the cold-wet 2Q25. Our nine-city panel is tracking 0.3°C

Target price R$16.50 below the same period of 2Q25 and 0.5°C below the 10-year average

through June 22. April was supportive, with Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo Expected share price return 0.8%

running 2.5°C and 1.8°C above April 2025, respectively, before colder Expected dividend yield 5.7%

conditions returned in May and June. In the quarter, through June 22, São Expected total return 6.5%

Paulo is running 0.1°C below last year and 0.8°C below normal, with 22 Market Cap R$258,051M

“cold days” (<20°C) versus 15 days in 2025, while Rio remains broadly in US$49,814M

line with last year. Weather has disappointed relative to expectations, but

the negative gap versus 2025 remains modest. Combined with easier

comparisons, lower rainfall and the ongoing global football tournament

(link), overall the evidence continues to favor a beer demand recovery for Renata CabralAC

Q2. +55-11-4009-7561

renata.cabral@citi.com

April: Favorable Weather, Led by São Paulo & Rio. April was the most supportive Luis Felipe Terzariol

month of the quarter for beer consumption and the only month to run above both last +55-11-4009-3564

year and historical averages. Across our nine-city panel, temperatures averaged 0.6°C luis.terzariol@citi.com

above April 2025 and 0.4°C above the 10-year average. The heavy lifting came from