Europe June Flash PMIs: Some Price Relief, Mixed Activity Picture

Research evidence excerpt

Europe June Flash PMIs: Some Price Relief, Mixed Activity Picture

Goldman Sachs

expectations. We think calendar effects supported this rebound after a softer May.

While broad-based across the two sectors, the sequential uptick was most notable

in the services sector, where the activity index rose by 3.1pt to 47.4. Composite

employment also firmed to 49.9. Composite price components softened, although

the press release noted that “plastic, packaging products and solvents were

commonly reported as up in price, and some companies also noted greater wage

costs”.

n Germany: The German composite PMI was softer than expected at 48.0, vs. 48.8 in

May. The decline was driven by the services sectors, with the activity index dropping

by 1.3pt to 46.8, the lowest level in more than three years. Manufacturing activity

was more resilient, with the manufacturing output PMI edging up by 0.4pt to 50.8

and new orders also firming. The composite employment index was unchanged at a

soft 47.4 and expectations were also essentially flat. Composite price components,

and especially input prices, soften in June, although they generally remain above the

pre-conflict levels.

n Periphery: In the periphery, the composite PMI rose by 1.4pt to 52.1, reflecting a

2.2pt increase in services activity to 52.0 and a 0.8pt softening in manufacturing

output. Price components softened in the periphery, too.

3. The UK composite PMI missed expectations for a rebound in June. The composite

ticked down by 0.3pt to 49.4, reflecting a 0.6pt moderation in services activity to 48.7,

the lowest level since early 2023, while manufacturing output remained firmer at 53.6.

Composite employment remains weak at 46.8 and new orders declined by 2.3pt to 47.5.