Hermès (RMS FP): Downgrade to Hold: Only marginal improvement

Research evidence excerpt

Hermès (RMS FP): Downgrade to Hold: Only marginal improvement

ory resilience in tough times (which is still the case) and the non-leather category ROE (%) 25.0 22.8 21.7 21.4

performing well, these elements are not reunited here. In our view, this means the gap 52-WEEK PRICE (EUR)

of growth between Hermès and the rest of the luxury sector is unlikely to be as visible 2600.00

as in the past, while the stock is trading at 36.1x PE27 (vs 24.0x PE27 for the luxury

sector). Sales growth is still solid no longer in double-digit territory. 2000.00

1400.00

Q2e (due 29 July) sales up 6.4% at constant FX, and H1 margin under pressure. 06/25 12/25

Target price: 1870.00

We expect sales to be up 6.4% organic (vs +5.6% in Q1 26), only a slight sequential High: 2474.00 Low: 1575.50 Current: 1620.00

acceleration for Q2. By region, we believe tourism flows could have improved slightly in Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Europe, particularly in France. Japan should still be solid. Asia ex Japan should remain

muted, with high-end consumers performing solidly and aspirational consumers still Anne-Laure Bismuth*

Head of Consumer Luxury & Sporting Goods

under pressure. In the US, the pricing component in Q2 should be a bit less supportive HSBC Bank plc

than in Q1, but organic will still be in the double digits. By product category, the leather annelaure.bismuth@hsbcib.com

+44 20 7991 6587

goods division should accelerate sequentially to +11%, getting closer to the FY2026

Akshay Gupta*, CFA

outlook, while we expect sales growth outside the leather goods category to remain soft Global Luxury & Consumer Analyst

at 3% organically in average, broadly in line with Q1. In terms of margin, we see H1 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

akshay.gupta@hsbc.com.hk