Q2 preview: approaching the peak. Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview: approaching the peak. Hold

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Norsk Hydro 23 June 2026

Company Update

Europe

Norway

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 22 Jun 2026 (NOK) 97.64

NHY.OL NHY NO OSL NHY

Price Target (NOK) 110.00

Metals & Mining

ADR ISIN 52-week range (NOK) 119.45 - 55.10

NHYDY US6565316055

Valuation & Risks

Liam Fitzpatrick

Q2 results due 22 July. Hold Research Analyst

We forecast Q2 EBITDA of NOK 8.8bn (Fig 2), similar to consensus (NOK 8.8bn) and +44-20-754-13233

Q1 (NOK 8.7bn). B&A and Energy will be the two weaker divisions in Q2 due to low

Bastian Synagowitz

alumina prices and reduced production, respectively, while Extrusions and Research Analyst

recycling may surprise to the upside due to a material improvement in spreads this +41-44-227-3377

year. Following a large build in Q1, WC should normalise lower in Q2 with the annual

Cody Hayden

CO2 compensation receipt. We expect Q3 to represent the quarterly peak for

Research Analyst

earnings (DB >NOK 11bn, consensus NOK 10.3bn), driven by higher realised

+44-20-754-13230

aluminium prices and premiums (2-3 month lag vs spot), although spot LME may

already have peaked in early June.

We downgraded Hydro to Hold in April following a powerful rally. Although the

shares have been under pressure in recent weeks (down >20% from the early June

peak) and the aluminium market should remain tight through H2, valuation remains

relatively full (pricing in ~$3,000/t) and we expect aluminium supply to rebound

progressively over the next 12 months. Consensus estimates have lifted

significantly in recent months, with 2027 EBITDA now sitting at NOK 39bn (DB base

and spot ~NOK 41bn). Hold.

Within, we provide our detailed Q2 preview and a summary of latest company

guidance.