A Noisy Transition Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

A Noisy Transition Ahead

Idea

June 24, 2026 12:32 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFedEx Corporation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

A Noisy Transition Ahead Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

FDX’s F4Q26 was modestly ahead of cons. and consistent with Madison J Pasterchick

the recent guide. As expected, we got a stub CY26 guide which Research Associate

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

is hard to compare to consensus but appears modestly light. It

will be difficult to judge numbers for a few quarters given the FedEx Corporation (FDX.N, FDX UN)

Freight Transportation | United States of America

noise but focus will be on fundamental debates.

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View Attractive

Key Takeaways PriceShr price,targetclose (Jun 23, 2026) $160.00$317.24

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $76,498

The last quarter of the "old FDX" came in 9% above MSe and 3% above cons., 52-Week Range $345.00-174.05

with results largely consistent with the updated guide.

The CY26 transition-year guide is difficult to compare given the shift to calendar

reporting, the FDXF spin, and pending restatements in Aug.

However, based on initial estimates, the implied 2HCY26 guide appears modestly

below sell-side expectations.

Mgmt. highlighted strong business momentum but noted stranded costs related

to the Freight spin will remain until exiting 2027.

We continue to believe the normalized multiple should be closer to 8-10x given

long-standing headwinds in the Parcel space.

Remain UW. The last quarter of the old FDX came in 9% above MSe and 3% above

cons and consistent with the updated guide. Parcel EBIT came in 5% above MSe and

2% above cons. while Freight beat by 23%/10% vs.