AlphaWise Parcel Flight Tracker (May 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

AlphaWise Parcel Flight Tracker (May 2026)

Update

June 18, 2026 01:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

AlphaWise Parcel Flight Tracker Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comBrian Nowak, CFA +1 212 761-6350

Brian.Nowak@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3365

(May 2026) Qingyi Huang

Equity Strategist

Qingyi.Huang@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-4837

May domestic flight data was mixed with parcel carriers (UPS, Jasper Lin

FDX) softening seq. and underperforming seasonality while EquityJasper.Lin@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-0837

AMZN outperformed, though yield-driven strength at UPS and Kun Chen

FDX may offset some volume weakness and we keep estimates EquityKun.Chen1@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-5228

unchanged pending June data. Nancy Hipp

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Madison J PasterchickMOur Parcel Flight Tracker, developed by our AlphaWise team, tracks domestic flight Research Associate

count for UPS and FDX, as well as AMZN, on a monthly basis. This dataset Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Katherine Bell

correlates well with historical results, which we believe can offer early insight into Research Associate

quarterly performance. See here for more on methodology. Katherine.Bell@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5618

Freight Transportation

What the data says about May 2026. According to our Tracker, in May 2026, UPS

North America

domestic flight count decreased 5% seq. this month (vs. +2% on average and +4% Industry View Attractive

last month) and y/y growth inflected negatively to -5% y/y (vs. +1% in April). FDX

domestic flight count decreased 5% seq. this month (vs. flat on average and +4%

seq.