Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

01 Jan 2026 -

Refining Margin (US$/bbl) 9.6 17.5 11.5 11.5 National Electric Vehicle strategy review

30 Dec 2026

Retail Gross Margin (cents/ltr) 20.0 21.4 21.4 21.4 Q2 2026 Geelong LNG Import Terminal FID

01 Jul 2026 - 31

Commercial Gross Margin (cents/ltr) 9.8 10.5 10.6 10.5 Vic WFH legislation (applies from 1 Sep)

Jul 2026

28 Jul 2026 - 30

Retail Volumes (BL) 5.15 5.24 5.33 5.43 2Q26 update

23 Aug 2026 -

Commercial Volumes (BL) 11.84 11.72 11.93 12.15 Half Year 2026 Viva Energy Group Ltd Earnings Release

27 Aug 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Convenience & Mobility fuel volume growth and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

margins Increase in Convenience & Mobility margins 1,167 Commercial & Industrial volume growth and remains structurally higher, supporting strong EBITDA

margins profits and offering potential for a re-rating (A$, mn) 1,113 1,557

Energy & Infrastructure margins Convenience and Commercial volumes grow 1,248

Refinery margins and USD are higher

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT 882

809 1,280

Commercial & Industrial business declines, e.g., (A$, mn) 957

aviation, mining

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 100% China and India Refiner margins and USD are lower

Integration risks with acquisitions, or other 492 Net income

headwinds to retail 467 767 (A$, mn)

Social license risk 553

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

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OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0.30

EPS

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 59.2% (A$) 0.28 0.47

0.34

3/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research