Adjusting estimates for CF & NTR post the sell-off in nitrogen

Research evidence excerpt

Adjusting estimates for CF & NTR post the sell-off in nitrogen

Equity Research

23 June 2026 | 1:00AM EDT

AMERICAS AGRICULTURE

Nitrogen prices have fallen considerably from the peak reached in mid-April, with Duffy Fischer

+1(212)902-0099 |

NOLA urea now selling at ~$365/st, which is below the pre-war price of ~$470/st duffy.fischer@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

after reaching a high of ~$755/st. While in large part due to seasonality, the degree

Jordan Leeof the decline has been exacerbated by 1) the announcement of the SoH reopening +1(212)357-6986 | jordan.lee@gs.com

and 2) the announcement of Chinese producers returning to the export market. We Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Mike Harrisare in a seasonal period of weak demand, with India acting as the only large importer +1(212)902-3667 | mike.harris@gs.com

of tons, though we believe prices reflect a less dire supply situation later in the year Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Abdulrahimfor Latin America and other 2H buying regions. This can also be seen within corn Ramsey | +1(212)902-0091

prices, which are down HSD% over the last 7 weeks with fears of a yield hit from ramsey.abdulrahim@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

under application of fertilizer in Latin America beginning to subside.

One chemical that remains extraordinarily tight is sulfur, which we believe will take

the longest to normalize as flows from the Middle East, Kazakhstan and Russia have

all seen significant reductions this year. As a result, Phosphate prices have remained

at near the highs and will likely remain elevated well into 2H. We expect the Q3

Tampa sulfur contract settlement, expected to increase from 2Q, will likely mark the

peak in sulfur prices barring the Strait re-closing.