US/Iran: A Revised Roadmap

Research evidence excerpt

US/Iran: A Revised Roadmap

Idea

June 23, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Public Policy | North America Ariana Salvatore

Equity Strategist

US/Iran: A Revised Roadmap Ariana.Salvatore@morganstanley.comSeth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0370

In the context of the US-Iran MOU, we lay out key areas of Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

uncertainty, routes for re-escalation, and signposts for Martijn Rats, CFA

implementation. Impacts are minimal to our economics & asset EquityMartijn.Rats@morganstanley.comAnalyst and Commodities Strategist +44 20 7425-6618

class views, but earlier Strait normalization vs. our outlook Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

baseline should be marginally constructive across the board. Matthew Hornbach

Strategist

• US Policy: US-Iran MOU in place for 60 days, but we see execution risk. For Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837

midterms, we see a slight buffer vs. a previously-worsening GOP position Serena W Tang

heading into November Serena.Tang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3380

• Oil: The MOU should facilitate 50% of lost production back by September, Andrew B Pauker

80% by December, but a physically tight market in the near term drives our EquityAndrew.Pauker@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-1330

forecast of $90/b for 3Q26

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

• Global Economics: The US-Iran MOU and reopening of the Strait in mid-June Marina Zavolock

are modestly constructive for the global economics outlook, but they do not Equity Strategist

Marina.Zavolock@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2318

materially alter our baseline

• Cross-Asset: The MoU reinforces our constructive stance on risk assets. We Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Laura Wang