Where the AI Boom Stands Now—Markets Ahead of the Macro

Research evidence excerpt

Where the AI Boom Stands Now—Markets Ahead of the Macro

Goldman Sachs Global Markets Analyst

n The investment boom is likely to extend, and near-term expectations of its scope

may still need to rise. But with a lot of value already built in, markets are more

vulnerable to news that challenges an optimistic view. Until the peak in the

investment cycle draws closer, robust earnings may dominate macro concerns, so we

want to find ways of staying invested while limiting downside. But we think equity

volatility is likely to rise further and the risk that rates ultimately end up meaningfully

lower beyond the peak of the investment boom is higher than normal.

AI-related optimism has helped drive markets to fresh highs in recent months. The

sustainability and pricing of the AI boom is once again the central dynamic for many

markets. We compared the current AI boom to the 1990s tech bubble in detail last

November, arguing that the investment boom remained firmly on track and that macro

imbalances that foreshadowed the end of the 1990s boom were not clearly visible yet.

We also showed that market pricing had run further ahead than the macro cycle,

building in a significant amount of potential value from AI up front.

Six months later, those conclusions still hold. Despite an acceleration in the investment

boom, strong profit growth has mostly prevented 1990s-style imbalances from

emerging. But the value that the market is assigning to AI gains has also grown even

further. The path of the economy so far looks different to the late 1990s investment

boom, and the vulnerabilities may also be different as a result.

Beyond the investment boom, few new imbalances

We identified four key macro developments that signaled potential bubble issues in the