What is driving high-frequency FX?

Research evidence excerpt

What is driving high-frequency FX?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Foreign Exchange Date

FX Blog 22 June 2026

Rohini Grover, Ph.D.

Main highlights of the High-Frequency monitor Last week, we highlighted a Strategist

decline in US equity–FX connectivity. Since then, the reopening of the Strait of +44-20-754-75907

Hormuz and lower oil prices have eased market concerns, helping US equity–FX

connectivity to normalise. US equities remain a key driver of FX, influencing a Christabel Charles

Research Analyst steady number of currencies, while copper's influence has strengthened. By

contrast, the footprint of oil and US rates has remained broadly stable.

Impact of key asset classes on FX: US equities are a key driver across USD/JPY,

GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF. Copper is most

relevant for GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/MXN, while oil mainly

affects USD/JPY, USD/MXN and USD/ZAR. US rates matter most for EUR/USD,

USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF.

Historical impact of key asset classes on FX: Over the past three months, US

equities have been the main driver for USD/CHF, USD/SGD, NZD/USD and

GBP/USD on more than 80% of trading days. Copper has led AUD/JPY more than

60% of the time, while oil has driven EUR/NOK on over 90% of days. US rates

have also been influential, particularly for NZD/USD, EUR/PLN and USD/CNH.

Contemporaneous effects between FX and other asset classes: US equities,

copper and US rates remain the dominant cross-asset drivers. US equities and

copper continue to support pro-cyclical currencies such as AUD, NZD, MXN and

ZAR, while higher US rates remain associated with weaker performance in EUR,

gold and several EM currencies. Oil appears to be a more selective driver, with a

weaker footprint across FX than equities, copper and rates.