ECI deep dive: Four scenarios to deliver through cyclicality

Research evidence excerpt

ECI deep dive: Four scenarios to deliver through cyclicality

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Rosebank

ECI deep dive: Four scenarios to deliver

through cyclicality

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 439.00 GBp | Price: 344.00 GBp

ECI ownership: the first real test of Rosebank’s strategy 22 June 2026

Since its 2024 listing, Rosebank has deployed $5bn across three acquisitions but ECI Equity

(completed in Aug-25) is the only asset held long enough to evaluate execution. As such

it is the clearest test of management’s strategy. The early read is mixed, most notable

Key Changeswithin Appliance & HVAC (A&H), where softer end-markets have weighed (see our

Capital Goods team’s recent Electrolux note). Consequently, investor attention has (US$) Previous Current

shifted to concerns around ECI’s cyclicality, relative to the other acquisitions. We Price Obj. 427.00p 439.00p

address this directly through new analysis and look at four scenarios, assessing the

operational and strategic flexibility to deliver or beat expectations. Rosebank is on our Jamie Murray >>

Research Analyst

“What’s Big in SMID” list of top ideas. MLI (UK)

44 20 7996-3794

Four scenarios to offset cyclicality jamie.murray3@bofa.com

We outline four credible scenarios to offset cyclicality within ECI: (1) Portfolio TimResearchRamskill,AnalystCFA >>

optimisation alongside Incremental cost actions. Assuming $15m of low-quality MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 3050

A&H exits pa, only 10-20 bps of incremental margin improvement pa is needed to meet tim.ramskill@bofa.com

expectations; (2) Reweighting revenue mix towards Electrical & Industrial (E&I). Hal Potter, CFA >>

This is neutral for revenue, but higher margins in E&I imply 1-2% EBIT upside pa. (3) Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Growing E&I alongside A&H.